Can the Government Still Hit Its 1.5 Million Homes Target?
The UK government has set one of the most ambitious housing targets in recent memory: 1.5 million new homes delivered within the current parliamentary term. It is a bold pledge, driven by widespread recognition that the country is in the grip of a prolonged housing crisis. But with housebuilding rates stubbornly below what is required, planning reform moving slowly, and mortgage affordability still stretched for millions of would-be buyers, the central question facing policymakers, developers, and homebuyers alike is a simple one — can the government actually deliver?
According to research and analysis from Savills, one of the UK's leading property consultancies, the target faces very real and material obstacles. However, the picture is not entirely bleak. Savills has highlighted that a well-designed buyer support scheme could meaningfully improve delivery rates and bring the ambition closer to reality. Understanding what that means — and what else needs to happen — is essential for anyone watching the UK housing market closely.
Why the Housing Target Is So Difficult to Hit
To deliver 1.5 million homes over a five-year parliamentary term, England alone would need to complete roughly 300,000 new homes per year. That figure has not been achieved since the late 1960s, when local authorities were building at scale alongside the private sector. In recent years, completions have hovered somewhere between 200,000 and 240,000 annually — a significant shortfall that underscores just how steep the challenge is.
Several structural barriers continue to hold back supply. The planning system remains one of the most commonly cited bottlenecks, with local authorities frequently under-resourced and slow to process applications. Labour shortages in the construction industry compound the problem, as does the rising cost of building materials that has squeezed developer margins since the post-pandemic period. Meanwhile, nutrient neutrality rules and environmental constraints have blocked or delayed thousands of planning permissions across large swathes of England.
The government has taken steps to tackle some of these issues. Planning reforms introduced in 2024 restored mandatory housing targets for local councils and made it harder for authorities to resist development on unmet housing need grounds. New planning officers are being recruited, and the National Planning Policy Framework has been updated to sharpen the focus on housing delivery. These are meaningful changes, but their effects will take time to filter through the system.
The Role of Demand: Why Supply Alone Is Not Enough
One aspect of the housing delivery challenge that sometimes receives less attention than planning reform is the demand side of the equation. Housebuilders are commercial operations, and they will only build homes they are confident they can sell at viable prices. When buyer demand weakens — as it did sharply when interest rates rose from historic lows in 2022 and 2023 — developers respond by slowing their build-out rates. This is rational behaviour from a business perspective, but it directly undermines any government target focused purely on planning permissions granted.
This is precisely where Savills' analysis becomes particularly instructive. The consultancy has argued that a buyer support scheme could materially improve delivery, recognising that unlocking demand is just as critical as unlocking supply. When potential buyers — particularly first-time buyers — face barriers to accessing mortgage finance or struggle to accumulate deposits against a backdrop of high house prices, completions suffer even when sites have planning permission and developers have the capacity to build.
What a Buyer Support Scheme Could Look Like
The Help to Buy equity loan scheme, which ran from 2013 to 2023, demonstrated the transformative effect that demand-side support can have on new-build completions. During its operation, the scheme helped over 380,000 households purchase a new-build home and was widely credited with sustaining housebuilder activity through periods of wider market uncertainty. Its closure left a notable gap in the market, particularly for first-time buyers purchasing new-build properties at the lower end of the price spectrum.
A successor scheme — or a remodelled version of similar support — could re-energise the entry-level new-build market. Savills' view is that such a scheme would not only help buyers access homeownership but would also give housebuilders the confidence to accelerate build programmes, take on more sites, and invest in the workforce and supply chains needed to hit higher output levels. The multiplier effect of demand-side policy on overall housing delivery should not be underestimated.
There are, of course, questions to be answered about how such a scheme would be funded, how it would be targeted to avoid inflating prices or distorting the market, and whether it would be accompanied by robust conditions on the quality and location of homes supported. Policymakers would need to learn from both the strengths and the criticisms of previous iterations. But the principle — that demand support matters as much as planning reform — appears well evidenced.
Is the Target Still Achievable?
The honest assessment is that delivering 1.5 million homes by the end of this parliament will be extremely challenging. The planning system cannot be reformed overnight, skilled labour cannot be conjured up quickly, and even with the best policy conditions, the construction industry has finite capacity. Most independent analysts, including those at Savills, acknowledge that the target is at serious risk of being missed on current trajectories.
Yet the target itself still has enormous value. Ambitious goals can drive systemic change, force difficult decisions, and shift the political and regulatory culture around housing in ways that yield long-term benefits even when the precise number is not reached. If a combination of planning reform, institutional investment in build-to-rent and social housing, and a renewed buyer support scheme can push annual completions toward 270,000 or 280,000, that would still represent a significant improvement on the baseline and a meaningful step toward addressing the housing crisis.
What This Means for the Market
For buyers, sellers, investors, and developers, the policy environment around housing delivery matters enormously. A credible buyer support scheme would likely have an immediate positive effect on new-build sales rates and could gradually improve the volume of homes coming to market. Planning reforms, if they take hold, should over time increase the land available for development and reduce the cost and uncertainty of bringing sites forward.
Savills' conclusion — that the government can still improve its position, but that demand-side intervention is a critical missing piece — is a practical and evidence-based assessment. The housing target may be under pressure, but the policy toolkit to get closer to it does exist. The question now is whether the government has the will, speed, and resources to deploy it effectively.